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Outrunning the Bear…

Thursday 16 October 2008
One of my granddads favourite stories was about two men walking along a path in the forest. Suddenly they turn a corner and come face to face with a huge, hungry bear. Both men stand frozen for a few heartbeats and then one bends down and tightens his shoelaces. "Don't be stupid" his friend says "there's no way you can outrun a bear". "I don't have to outrun the bear" his friend replies "I only have to outrun you!"

Now I must admit that in my granddads' story it was a lion and not a bear, but considering the current market conditions I thought a bear would be more appropriate.

I wanted to start with the above story because it's a light hearted look at how we as humans react when faced with a problem. Some stand frozen, unable to act, unable to make a decision out of fear that what they decide might be the wrong option. They hide behind indecision, not committing one way or another, hoping that by not making a decision they can't make the wrong one. And often like in the story above their indecision leads to their downfall.

Others look at the situation and in an instant realise that swift action is needed. Like a General in war they evaluate, make a decision, commit and act swiftly and decisively. Are they always right? Of course not! But at least they found the courage to act.

No one can deny that as a global economy we are living through some interesting and challenging times. The world's financial systems are being overhauled. Banks that have been household names for generations are no more. History is really in the making.

It's hard for some and will probably get harder. But just like the Great Depression, Black Monday and 9/11 things will settle down, recover and the upswing will come. And now, just like then, there are massive opportunities for those who are willing to act. Friends in Canary Wharf and the City tell of millions being MADE by day traders over the last few weeks by using the market volatility to their advantage. Warren Buffett has famously bought $5 billion worth of shares in Goldman Sachs. Estate agents and auction houses report seeing "property pro's" back after a few years of absence.

What all these investors have in common other than big kahunas, is that they all realize that the best buying opportunity of the last 20 years has blessed us with its presence. And once again those who get left behind will look back in a few years and proclaim "If only I bought then" or worst yet: "Those guys got lucky"

One thing for sure, the hungry bear is here and someone's going to end up as his dinner. So the only question you need to ask yourself is this: Can I outrun the other guy?

Should you need a little guidance or advice, I'd be more than happy to spend some time with you either on the phone or face to face over a coffee. So give me a call in the office on 0207 2234 109 or visit the Contact Us page to drop me a line.

I look forward to speaking to you soon.

Mike Smuts
Property investor and Managing Director of Smuts & Taylor.

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