The latest data from Halifax has revealed that during the last three months house prices were 1.4% higher than between April and June. This is the fastest price growth, on this measure, since February.

Key Findings

• prices in the three months to September were 4.0% higher than in the same three months a year earlier.
• The annual rate in September is higher than in August (2.6%) and at its highest growth rate since February.
• The Halifax data shows that house prices rose by 0.8% between August and September, following a 1.5% increase in August.
• Total UK home sales remained flat in August but still exceeded 100,000. Sales in August remained unchanged from July and exceeded 100,000 for the eighth month in succession. In the three months to August home sales were 1% higher than in the preceding three months. (Source: HMRC, seasonally-adjusted figures)

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After more than a decade of sluggish output in the housebuilding sector, England faces a growing gulf between new build completions and new households being added to the population.

England is on course to be lacking more than one million new homes to meet the demands of a growing population after years of reducing new home build development.

According to research by conveyancing search provider Search Acumen, using official figures from the UK government and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), England has been experiencing a shortfall in the number of new houses being built compared with the number of new households being added to the population for more than a decade.

Search Acumen compared the volume of new homes completed in England each year since 1976 with new dwellings needed to accommodate the growing number of households over the same period. It estimated household growth by assessing annual ONS birth, death and migration data, and used the ONS’ average annual number of people deemed a household to determine how many new homes would meet the extra demand.

Key Findings

• In the mid 2000’s the creation of new households outstripped supply for the first time in three decades – which has grown further as the population in England has increased.
• UK household size reducing by 16%, from 2.78 persons in 1976 to 2.34 in 2016, indicates more but smaller households putting increasing demand on property supply.
• Before the last General Election, both the Conservatives and Labour pledged to increase new home builds between 2017 and 2022. The data collected compared those pledges – of 300,000 and 200,000 completed new homes each year over a five year period respectively – to its findings. According to projections, only the Tories’ immediate jump to 300,000 homes per year – double 2016’s completions – would only address the current shortfall in the short term.
• Taking a closer look at the gap that developed after 2005, the data can estimate the shortfall in supply created by the slowdown in new house builds. Between 2005 and 2016, more than 530,000 too few homes were built to meet the growing demand.
• The research also projected how many homes would be completed each year and how many more households would be created. If trends continue, England will need an additional 510,000 homes to meet demand. This, on top of the current shortfall means England could have more one million too few homes by 2022.

Finding space to build a million more new homes

• More than one million homes additional homes may sound like a daunting proposal in a relatively small country. To illustrate the amount of space needed Search Acumen theoretically speculated as to the amount of potential available land for housing development in England by assessing only available brownfield and green belt land. According to government figures, there are currently more than 31,000 hectares of brownfield land in England that is suitable to build homes on. In 2015, housebuilders were able to build 37 domiciles per hectare on brownfield land.
• Therefore, Search Acumen’s analysis suggests that there is enough brownfield land in England to meet cumulative demand for housing for the next five years if trends continue.
• Finally, Search Acumen estimated how much green belt land could be theoretically affected. The research found that if housebuilders continued to build 14 domiciles per hectare on the more than 1.1 million hectares of green belt land in England, only 14% of all green belt would have to be turned over to developers to meet cumulative demand into 2047.

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The latest Hometrack house price index has revealed that, as prices in the capital slip, Manchester and Birmingham are the two cities that have seen the biggest growth in house prices in the 12 months to August.

Key Findings

• Manchester has seen prices rise by 7.3%, closely followed by Birmingham at 6.7%. Edinburgh has also seen a marked improvement of 6.6% in the past year.
• Meanwhile the headline rate of growth across UK cities is running at 4.9%
• Other cities that have recently enjoyed strong growth such as Cambridge (2.8%) and Oxford (3.8%)
• New analysis accompanying this month’s index reveals that the total value of private housing in the UK’s top 20 cities has passed the £3 trillion mark for the first time. A staggering 66% of that figure or £2.0 trillion is accounted for by the value of London which covers London and its commuter hinterland.
• Birmingham and Manchester the second and third most valuable cities accounting for £152bn (5%) and £132bn (4%) respectively.
• In the past twelve months the overall value of housing in UK cities has grown £89bn.

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The latest data and analysis from ONS/Land Registry has revealed that average house prices in the UK have increased by 5.1% in the year to July 2017.

Key Findings

• The annual growth rate has slowed since mid-2016 but has remained broadly around 5% during 2017.
• The average UK house price was £226,000 in July 2017. This is £11,000 higher than in July 2016 and £2,000 higher than last month.
• The main contribution to the increase in UK house prices came from England, where house prices increased by 5.4% over the year to July 2017, with the average price in England now £243,000.
• Wales saw house prices increase by 3.1% over the last 12 months to stand at £151,000.
• In Scotland, the average price increased by 4.8% over the year to stand at £149,000.

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According to the latest data and analysis from Halifax, house prices in the three months to August were 2.6% higher than in the same three months a year earlier.

Key Findings

• The annual rate in August is higher than in July (2.1%), however it has fallen from a peak of 10.0% in March 2016 when transactions grew sharply ahead of the introduction of new higher stamp duty tax rates for buy to let and second homes that came into effect in April.
• House prices rose by 1.1% between July and August, following a 0.7% increase in July.

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New research from The Housing and Finance Institute has uncovered that there has been a sharp fall in house working inside London and that without precedent for a long time, there are more homes being worked in the home provinces than in the capital.

The Institute says this looks like being part of a longer-term trend of London being increasingly outpaced by the rest of the country – and not because of the Brexit vote in June 2016.

Findings

• Figures just released showed that around 16,800 new homes were started in London in the year to March 2017. This was down sharply from nearly 23,000 homes the year before.
• By contrast, the Home Counties areas started over 24,300 new homes in the year to March 2017. This was a strong rise on around 21,500 new homes started the year before.
• In addition, England as a whole saw nearly 163,000 homes started in the year to March 2017. This was also a sharp rise on around 143,000 housing starts in the previous year.
• The evidence shows the fall in London housing starts may be part of a longer term trend. Not only are new home starts in London lower now than in 2013, the Institute’s analysis shows that London’s contribution to the total number of new homes across the country has slumped from around 17 per cent to just ten per cent over the last five years.

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Research by eMoov has highlighted that even if the market continues stalling an increase 0.37% a month, the average UK house would still hit £347,757 over the next decade, an increase of 56%.

Research Findings

• The average house price has risen on average by just 0.37% a month since the decision to leave the EU, compared to 0.67% a month on average between June 2015 and 2016.
• London has seen a real slowdown in price growth since Brexit and so although the capital would still be one of the most expensive cities in the UK
• London homeowners have seen an average monthly increase of just 0.18% since June last year, but this is still enough to push prices to a huge £597,544 over the next ten years
• Nottingham is top of the table in terms of monthly prices growth since Brexit, up 0.80% a month on average meaning the average house price would increase 160% from the current £133,215 to £346,592 by 2027.
• Glasgow has increased by a notable 0.70% a month since June of last year, the second highest across the UK. If this subdued monthly growth continues the Scottish city will see prices hit £285,487 by 2027, a jump of 131%.
• Oxford ties with fourth place Cardiff with an average monthly increase of 0.64% in the last year. As a result, the city would see its already expensive current cost of property (£413,240) jump £115% to an eye watering £888,542 by 2027. Cardiff would see a new average house price of £427,799 by 2027.
• Edinburgh, Scotland’s capital and its second entry in the top five has seen prices increase by a monthly average of 0.63% since June 2016. The same slower rate of growth over the next decade would still see prices exceed half a million (£506,627), an increase of 112%.

Founder and CEO of eMoov, Russell Quirk, commented: “With latest industry figures indicating an end to the post-Brexit market slowdown that has seemingly plagued the market over the last 18 months, many UK homeowners will be breathing a sigh of relief, despite having still enjoyed a notable annual increase in their property’s value.  

Although these recent slower rates of price growth are unlikely to persist going forward, and we are by no means predicting they will, this research demonstrates that the outlook would still be rather positive and far from the apocalyptic prophecy’s many have talked the market down with since the Brexit vote.”

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The latest figures from Hometrack show that UK city house price growth is running at 5.1% per annum, down from 8.8% in June 2016

Other Key Findings

• Growth in the first half of 2017 ranges from 0.2% in Aberdeen to 6.1% in Birmingham
• This is consistent with an 11% increase in home purchase mortgages which are also 5% higher than the 5 year average.

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According to May’s UK House Price Index, average house prices in the UK have increased by 4.7% in the year to May 2017 – down from 5.3% in the year to April 2017.

Key Findings

• The data also revealed that the annual growth ratehas remained broadly around 5% during 2017.
• Regionally, East of England showed the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 7.5% in the year to May 2017.
• This was followed by the East Midlands at 7.2%.
• The North East experienced both the greatest monthly price growth with an increase of 1.8%
• Comparing May 2017 to April 2017, property transactions fell by 3.3%.

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According to the latest research from Lloyds Bank, house prices in London have recovered with a 59% increase from 2009 – rising from an average of £362,641 to £578,381 in 2016, compared to a growth of 31% for England and Wales.

Key Findings

• The Lloyds data revealed that house prices in the City of London have doubled (100% increase) since 2009 to £908,759.
• Second was borough of Waltham Forest which also had a significant increase of 97% to £433,105.
• In the last two years, the largest growth areas are from London’s outer boroughs with an average growth of 19%, compared to 4% for prime boroughs and 12% for inner boroughs.
• Nine out of the top 10 growth areas over this same period are within Outer boroughs with an increase in house prices between 25% and 32%.
• Newham and Barking & Dagenham, the two boroughs most impacted by the downturn, are now the areas which have seen the biggest increase in house prices in the last two years. Helped in part by the regeneration of this area as a result of the London 2012 Olympic Games, Newham has seen average house prices increase from £269,529 in 2014 to £356,638 in 2016, a rise of 32%, with Barking and Dagenham also reporting a rise of 32% to £285,129.

Andy Mason, mortgage director at Lloyds Bank, commented: “The financial crisis saw average house prices in London generally remain stable during 2007 and 2009. Following the crisis, the growth in average prices in prime boroughs outpaced other areas in London by nearly double to create its own distinct market.

More recently, our analysis is showing house price growth in Outer London boroughs is increasing at a greater pace than Inner London boroughs. Average house prices in the most expensive areas are starting to flatten, whereas London’s most affordable areas are showing healthy growth. A possible explanation for this is the ongoing legacy from the 2012 Olympic Games and that outer borough areas like Newham will benefit from the Crossrail link to the City due for completion at the end of 2019.”

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