Halifax one of Britain’s biggest mortgage lenders latest house price index date has revealed that house prices dropped 2.9% in January compared to December’s 2.5% rise.

House prices did grow 0.8 per cent in the three months to January compared to the same period last year, with the national average price standing at £223,691.

Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax, said the month-to-month drop was the second time since 2017 that prices have fallen in the new year.

“However, the bigger picture is actually that house prices have seen next to no movement over the last year,” he added.

“This could either be viewed as a story of resilience, as prices have held up well in the face of significant economic uncertainty, or as a continuation of the slow growth we’ve witnessed over recent years.

“There’s no doubt that the next year will be important for the housing market with much of the immediate focus on what impact Brexit may have. However, more fundamentally it is key underlying factors of supply and demand that will ultimately shape the market.”

Those factors include a record high employment rate as wages grow and inflation stays low, but steeper prices mean funding deposits is still difficult.

“On balance therefore we expect price growth to remain subdued in the near term,” Galley said.

Other surveys and the official data point to a slowing UK market, with prices declining in London and parts of the south-east because of Brexit uncertainty, stamp duty changes and a lack of affordable properties.

According to Nationwide, Britain’s biggest building society, annual growth in house prices almost ground to a halt in January, declining to 0.1% – the slowest annual rate since February 2013.

The Nationwide said it was likely that the recent slowdown in the market was due to “the impact of the uncertain economic outlook on buyer sentiment”.

It said this uncertainty among buyers was outweighing the otherwise positive backdrop of “solid employment growth, stronger wage growth and continued low borrowing costs”.

The Nationwide survey, which is based on its own lending data, showed that house prices rose by 0.3%, accounting for seasonal factors, in January compared with December. There was no change in prices in the three months to the end of January compared with the previous quarter.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “The economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.

“However, if the economy continues to grow at a modest pace, with the unemployment rate and borrowing costs remaining close to current levels, we would expect UK house prices to rise at a low single-digit pace in 2019.”

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Halifax has revealed  that the average house price in the UK is now £229,729

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: “In December the average cost of a home was £229,729 and annual house price growth stood at 1.3%. A stronger monthly growth figure for December reversed a weak November figure, monthly fluctuations are common, leaving the annual figure very firmly in the range of 0-3% as we forecast at the start of the year.

In 2019, we’re expecting continued stability in house prices with between 2% and 4% price inflation. This is slightly stronger than 2018, but still fairly subdued by modern comparison. However, this expectation will clearly be dependent on the Brexit outcome, with risks to both sides of our forecast.

Of course, there are a number of other factors that will impact the market in 2019. The need to raise a significant deposit still acts as a restraint for those looking to buy a new home, limiting the number of potential purchasers.

This year, mortgage payment affordability is more difficult to predict. There are competing pressures with signs of positive annual pay growth supporting affordability, but risks associated with the potential for higher interest rates are pulling in the other direction. On balance we do not see affordability pushing house price growth significantly in either direction.

The shortage of homes for sale and continuing low levels of housebuilding both constrain the supply of houses, and in turn support high prices, which will continue to inhibit demand in 2019.”

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Due to a declining level of stock annual rental value growth has turned positive in prime central London.

Analysis conducted by Knight Frank has shown rents increasing by 1.1% year on year in December.

The average gross yield in prime central London was now 3,35%, the highest in more than six years, and in prime outer London it was 3.5% the highest in almost four years.

Rightmove UK’s largest property listing portal has show that New lettings listings in prime central and prime outer was 13% lower in 2018 compared to 2017 while the overall number of listings declined by 21%.

An average gross yield of 3.35% in prime central London in December was the highest figure in almost seven years. Meanwhile, a gross yield of 3.5% in prime outer London was the highest in almost four years.

Indeed, total returns in prime central London outperformed a range of other asset classes in 2018. A decline of 1.2% was relatively modest compared to a 8.7% decline in the FTSE 100 total return index, or a 14% decline in the S&P GSCI world commodity index and a 70%+ fall in the value of Bitcoin.

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Nationwide have revealed that across the UK The average price of a home in the UK is now £212,281.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, commented on the figures: “UK house price growth slowed noticeably as 2018 drew to a close, with prices just 0.5% higher than December 2017.

This marks a noticeable slowdown from previous months, where prices had been rising at a c2% pace. However, it is broadly in line with our expectations (since the start of the year we had been anticipating a price rise of c1% in 2018).

Indicators of housing market activity, such as the number of property transactions and the number of mortgages approved for house purchases, have remained broadly stable in recent months, but forward-looking indicators had suggested some softening was likely.

In particular, measures of consumer confidence weakened in December and surveyors reported a further fall in new buyer enquiries towards the end of the year. While the number of properties coming onto the market also slowed, this doesn’t appear to have been enough to prevent a modest shift in the balance of demand and supply in favour of buyers.

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London has arguably been the main driving force of the UK property market, with Brexit playing its part annual growth has been rising but at a slower rate over the course of this year whilst in other parts of the UK the rate of house price growth in the midlands and North East of England has been nothing short of impressive

Currently it is a buyers market where more deals are being negotiated, for those investors trying to second guess the market with the intention of purchasing at an even lower level many are finding values in some developments, areas and certain types of properties are still holding their values and in instances increasing as the demand for those types of properties have not wavered.

In London average prices have climbed 41% since 2013 rising from £331,338 to £468,544 from looking latest house price data from Nationwide which is a new all-time high.

Investors who hold there nerve a midst economic and political upheavals are still likely to come out on top.

While UK housing has always been a great investment over time returns can be increased with careful property selection, identifying regional trends and areas of rental yield strength.

UK property has a proven track record of returns it is extremely tempting it is to think prices are unsustainable but the level of demand for housing in Britain makes property one of the most attractive asset classes on a continued basis.

Those investors who pulled out between April 2007 and April 2013 after the fallout of the global financial crisis, only for growth to recover in the years that followed, know they had missed out for acting on impulse and abandoning property altogether.

Fundamentals in regards to successful property investing has always remained the same. The market rewards those who remain level-headed, diversify their portfolios and do their research.

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Data released by ONS and the Land Registry has shown that across the UK, average house prices were up by 2.7% in the year to October.

Key Findings

• The figure is down from 3% recorded during September 2018 – driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England and hitting the lowest annual rate since July 2013.
• The lowest annual growth in October was seen in the capital, where prices fell by 1.7% over the year.
• The North West showed the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 4.9% in the year to October 2018, followed by Yorkshire and The Humber at 4.4%.

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UK housing market from NAEA Propertymark has revealed that the number of house hunters registered per estate agent branch fell last month, from 294 in October, to 282 in November. This is the lowest number of buyers recorded for the month of November since 2012, when agents registered 263.

Other Key Findings

• In November, the supply of available housing fell by 13% dropping from an average of 40 in October, to 35 per branch.
• The number of properties sold to FTBs remained at 23 per cent in November

Mark Hayward, Chief Executive, NAEA Propertymark said: “Last month it was clear that uncertainty surrounding Brexit was having an impact on the sector, and this month is no different. We usually see a seasonal slow-down, but it’s unlikely that the time of year is the sole cause of today’s market conditions. As we near the end of the year, we’d usually expect potential buyers and sellers to put their plans on hold until early next year, but it’s likely that this year we’ll just see people holding off until there’s some clarity around what the Brexit deal might look like and what it will mean for the economy.”

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Q: Should I postpone any purchase because of the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. Some people believe property prices will go up while others believe that prices will fall. So I can’t decide whether it’s the right time to buy or whether I should wait. Can you tell me what to do?

A Unfortunately I don’t have a crystal ball so I can’t tell you what to do and I can’t say what kind of Brexit we have next March.

I can however state some facts and state some predictions from experts. The most talked about prediction was from the governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney which he had warned that with a worst case scenario Brexit (no deal) the economy would suffer, unemployment, consumer prices and interest rates could rise and house prices could fall as much as 25% to 30%.

I hear this quote a lot of the time, what you don’t hear is what Mark Carney said a day later and “That’s not a prediction of what is going to happen,” which he told an event in Dublin a day after. It is understood this was the worst of three no-deal scenarios presented to ministers and is in line with the Bank’s 2017 stress-test scenario that also envisaged unemployment rising to 9.5%, from the current level of 4%, and interest rates jumping to 4%, from 0.75% today.

So from hearing this is you feel that prices could fall you could have a point.  On the other hand, after the fall out of the last UK recession if I had to tell clients back in 2007/2008 at the peak of the property crash that in 10 years’ time London House prices will rise to nearly double they would have probably laughed me out the building. Fast forward 10 years and they pretty much have and every client I had who had brought before and after the last recession in London has done very well.

Back near the beginning of the year, experts were predicting that house prices would stop going up or, at the very least, go up by no more than 1%. They weren’t far off but according to figures recently published by Halifax reported the slowest annual rate of house price growth for five years, at 1.5 per cent, this slowdown is unlikely to turn into an actual fall in the market in the short term, and the Halifax still expects the outcome for the year as a whole to be an increase of between 0 and 3 per cent.

Some areas in the UK have seen great growth over the course of the year which has not deterred many investors area such as Manchester, Birmingham and Liverpool have seen strong property prices growths. Even some areas in London are still outperforming the local areas but I would say property investments now need more research than ever in finding the right property where there is more emphasis on location, regeneration, demand as well as the size, aspect and finish of the property.

So if you’re thinking of Investing in UK property looking at all the goings on it is most likely leaving people more confused, which a lot of investors would be feeling. But if like me you feel that in all honesty no one can predict the future so if you want to invest in UK property make a decision based on things which you can find out such as investment and infrastructure and demand going into an area (which will increase property values), rather than those such fall out from Brexit which no one knows.

Even though it’s a buyers market, that doesn’t necessarily mean every property on the market is obtainable at a discount. Similarly to how potential buyers and investors are waiting to see what will happen with Brexit before making a purchase, sellers who aren’t in a rush to sell are also not willing to reduce their asking prices on the flip side of thing Brexit negotiations are successful and they miss out on selling a property they could have sold at a higher price purely due to market speculation on an outcome on something that has not yet happened.  

So if you’ve done your research the area and the property has solid fundamentals to grow in value, looking to hold onto it for a number of years and gone through the numbers of how much it will cost to hold, I’d be tempted not to wait as you may run the risk of losing it if you do and/or having to pay a higher price.

The current market actually provides plenty of opportunity from sellers who are motivated– for those landlords who have grown and adapted with the changes. Those landlords that are selling up due to new tax implications are freeing up properties, often in areas of high rental demand, which those investors sticking around can snap up. With developers that are nearing completion on their sites better deals are to be had which again investors are buying up.

If you are thinking of buying a property after Brexit then there is no harm in starting researching what areas and sites would be the places you would look to invest now so you are prepared and ready to make that investment jump.

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Focusing on the UK’s largest Cities, with billions being invested into improvements, regeneration and infrastructure, these cities have been outperforming London in regards to average capital growth in houses prices and rental yield increases. It’s no surprise that 2017/2018 has seen the largest take up of investors buying up in key city centre locations taking advantage of the lower £psf value compared to London, less additional stamp duty charges and higher rental yields .

Birmingham Current Pricing : £300-£450 PSF

• 2018 population: 1,147,300 – 2041 projected population: 1,313,300
  Property price growth over past five years: 29.46%
• The city has a young population compared to the country as a whole
• five university campuses
• The city has the sixth highest graduate retention rate of any UK city, and the third largest inflow of graduates with no prior connection to the city.

Manchester

• 2018 population: 553,500 – 2041 projected population: 631,500
  Property price growth over past five years: 30.60%
• The city is second only to London in terms of its graduate returners (at 58%), as well as its inflow of graduates with no prior connection to the city.
• Businesses are doing much to harness this talent; Amazon, for example, chose Manchester as the site of its first Amazon Academy, running a series of programmes and events designed to help hundreds of small, local businesses.

Liverpool

• 2018 population: 495,300 – 2041 projected population: 554,500
  Property price growth over past five years: 24.67%
• 42% of Liverpool’s population is below the age of 30, compared with 37% nationally.
• This youthful population is driving forward Liverpool’s reputation as an innovative, entrepreneurial city. It is also one of the main forces behind the extensive regeneration that the city is experiencing, while the growing trend for city centre living is creating new hotspots close to key attractions and amenities.

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The latest data released by Halifax revealed that prices between September and November were 1.1% lower than in the preceding three months and when looked at on a month-by-month with the average price of a home in the UK now at £224,578.

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, commented on this morning’s figures: “House price growth has slowed as we approach the end of the year, falling from 1.5% in October to 0.3% in November, with the average cost of a home now £224,578. While this is the lowest rate of growth in six years, it remains within our forecast range of 0% to 3% for 2018.

High employment, wage growth and historically low mortgage rates continue to make home ownership more affordable for many, though the need to raise a significant deposit still acts as something of a restraint on the market. This is largely offset by relatively limited supply of new and existing properties for sale, which continues to sustain house prices nationally.”

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